July 21, 2026
By Evan Lepler
It’s always dangerous to declare bold sweeping takeaways based upon one mostly meaningless weekend. But after the UFA’s 2026 regular season concluded with a bunch of blowouts, I found my mind wandering to an idea that has been percolating over the past couple of weeks.
Warning: This next thought might offend you.
Please put your emotional seatbelt on and proceed cautiously.
Ready?
Here we go.
Currently, the UFA looks like the beasts in the East and then everyone else.
Goodness, Lepler. What are you talking about? This disrespect is ridiculous. Austin, Carolina, Minnesota, and Oakland are a combined 43-5. You are such a fool.
Touché. You might be right.
But here’s what I just watched this past weekend:
- New York led 12-2 after 14 minutes and won 37-20. They had eight turnovers in the game. And Daan De Marree didn’t even play.
- Boston led 12-1 after 17 minutes and won 25-11. The defending champs are 11-1 and riding the league’s longest active winning streak.
- DC went to Atlanta and beat the Hustle 24-22. The Breeze didn’t need to win, but they still looked like a mighty contender, with just nine turnovers on the night.
- And Toronto absolutely pummeled Indianapolis 28-17. That’s the East’s fourth-best team smashing arguably the second-best side in the Central.
And it’s not just this weekend. It’s the whole season. Heck, it’s the last four seasons!
East Division teams went 11-3 in interdivisional games this year.
The West went 5-7, the South 4-6, and the Central 4-8. Woof.
Since the start of 2023, the East has gone 31-12 in interdivisional action, including Championship Weekend. The South has gone 23-23, the Central 16-25, and the West 15-25.
Seriously, Lepler, you need to stop. What do results from 2023 have anything to do with the 2026 playoffs? Your East bias is embarrassing.
Fair. Totally fair.
Look, I’m not saying that I think whoever emerges from the East will completely dominate at Championship Weekend. The three other divisions all have at least one truly elite team, and on any given night, the wind can alter the course of ultimate history.
But aside from Boston’s six-game heater, the league’s second-longest active winning streak is a tie between the Carolina Flyers and all East Division teams going up against interdivisional opponents.
Carolina’s opponents during its five-game streak have a combined record of 20-39.
Meanwhile, the East’s last five interdivisional foes are a combined 31-28.
Advantage: East.
Not to mention that the Flyers last loss came against DC. Another nod toward the I-95 corridor.
One more salient detail: the East Division champ has won four of the league’s last six titles. And technically, there was no East Division in 2021, when the Flyers beat the Empire in the final and both were members of the short-lived Atlantic.
So to further enhance my point, let’s call it four out of the last five.
Here’s the bottom line. I truly have no rooting interest. I just call it like I see it.
And after watching frisbee every single weekend—for my 12th consecutive season—I believe that the favorite heading into Championship Weekend will be whoever wins in Boston on Saturday, August 8.
As for which of the three East Division dynamos will be the last team standing: Does anyone have a cool coin we can flip? Between Boston and New York, it truly feels like a 50/50 toss-up. Of course, there’s no guarantee that the Empire can even squeak past DC this Saturday.
For the dozen teams that are still alive, it’s all potentially one and done now. Every year, seasons end abruptly, and only one team can earn the glory.
Last year, it was the Glory.
And five weeks from Friday, we will see who can join them in the realm of frisbee immortality.
The Full Field Layout
Long-time readers of the Tuesday Toss are probably familiar with this next stat. It’s definitely one of my favorites.
In nine of the last 10 UFA postseasons, we’ve seen at least one road team win.
And heading into the 2026 playoffs, I’d be stunned if it doesn’t happen again.
During the regular season, we saw good teams win road games against elite teams on a regular basis. New York won at Boston in early June, and Boston returned the favor at New York seven days later. Similar story between the Empire and Breeze, who traded road wins and home losses way back in May.
Like Boston and New York, Minnesota and Oakland also went 6-0 on the road but suffered their single losses at home. Among the league’s elite, only Austin and Carolina were undefeated at home this season, though the Sol did not have the honor of hosting the Flyers this summer, a fact that could change in just a couple weeks.
Beyond the minutiae, we truly have four fascinating first round matchups across the UFA.
Here are my quick first thoughts on all four opening round duels.
Friday, July 24 — San Diego (7-5) at Carolina (10-2) — 7:30 PM/ET
Exactly 13 weeks after these two teams opened the season against each other on "Friday Night Frisbee" in San Diego, the Growlers and Flyers meet again to launch the postseason, but this time it’s at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina. (Note: the Flyers played all their regular season games at Durham County Memorial Stadium, but are switching to WakeMed, the site of the team’s first game ever back in 2015, for the playoffs.)
On April 24, Carolina prevailed 22-20 in a game that had just 15 total turnovers. It was the only game in the Association all season where both teams finished with single digit giveaways, and the Flyers’ turnover count—six—was the fewest for any UFA team in a game this year.
Both teams have played well down the stretch, with the Flyers riding a five-game winning streak and the Growlers cruising to four consecutive wins. If Austin had tripped up against Houston this past weekend, Carolina could have gotten a free pass to the South final, but no Flyer was too surprised to see that they will have to earn their way to Austin.
“We were mentally prepared to host the two vs. three game and play San Diego,” said Flyers Head Coach Michael Avila. “After missing the playoffs last season, I know our guys aren’t taking anything or anyone for granted. San Diego will get the same effort and attention from us that we’ve given every team up until this point.”
There’s no doubt that the Flyers are a more explosive team now than they were back in April—adding Tobias Brooks in Week 6 and Zeke Thoreson in Week 7 helped lift Carolina’s ceiling significantly—but the Growlers also believe they are a very different squad than the one that struggled to stymie the Flyers way back in April.
“The biggest thing is, last time we played them, I think they had like four turns total,” said Growlers defender Max Gibson, exaggerating only slightly, via the team’s Instagram. “We had no defensive pressure, and our O-line was kinda just flustered. Times have changed. We played really good games against Austin. We’ve played really good games against Atlanta. If we can bring what we’ve brought to other great teams this year, I think it’ll be great. I’m excited.”
While San Diego certainly enters Friday’s matchup as the underdog, the Growlers also know that they can travel cross-country and win. Remember, San Diego prevailed at Carolina, 26-25 in double overtime, during the 2025 journey. That was a monumental result that ended up being the difference in the Growlers making the playoffs and the Flyers missing the tournament for the first time in franchise history.
I believe that San Diego can keep it close on Friday, but I think the Flyers are really, really good. Their defense has five different dudes with double-digit blocks, more than any other team in the league. And their offense ranks number three in the UFA in hold rate, conversion rate, and red zone. They’ve outscored their opponents by 90 goals over the course of the season, and they should be well-rested, focused, and ready heading into Friday night.
The Pick: Flyers 22 Growlers 17
Saturday, July 25 — DC (9-3) at New York (10-2) — 2:00 PM/ET
For the fourth time in the last five UFA seasons, the Breeze and Empire are set to clash in the playoffs. (Like Carolina, New York has a venue change for the playoffs; the Empire will be back at their long-time home Fosina Field in New Rochelle on Saturday afternoon)
New York got the better of DC in the 2022 and 2023 East Division finals, but the Breeze hammered the Empire 23-12 in last year’s opening round matchup. They split two games in the 2026 regular season, each winning on the other’s home field. This Saturday will be the 40th all-time meeting in the series; only Minnesota and Chicago, who’ve gone head-to-head 41 times, have a longer history. But when you consider the teams’ history of postseason matchups and down-to-the-wire battles, there’s no disputing that DC and New York are the premier rivalry in the UFA.
While anything can happen in a single game, the Empire are the statistical juggernaut. New York basically lapped the field in the turnovers per game department, averaging just 10.75, the fewest in a season in UFA history. Minnesota, who’s second-best in this area, is closer to DC, who’s seventh, than New York.
The Empire also rank first in hold rate, O-line conversion rate, and D-line conversion rate. If you want to search for a statistical area where the 2026 Breeze are superior to New York, you need to dig pretty deep into the weeds.
But obviously those season-long trends are not guaranteed to hold in a survive-and-advance scenario. The Breeze enjoyed their second single-digit turnover game of the season at Atlanta this past Saturday, and DC appears healthier than it’s been all season. Aidan Downey, the 2024 Callahan Award Winner with Georgia, made his season debut against the Hustle. Fred Farah, an important defender for matching up with the Empire, caught a career-high five goals in Atlanta over the weekend. Veterans like Jacques Nissen, Christian Boxley, and Sean Mott will not be intimidated by the magnitude of the moment, and Miles Grovic is an elite young playmaker, capable of taking over the game.
Of course, if we’re discussing elite playmakers, arguably no team in the entire UFA has more than the Empire. After missing the regular season finale, Daan De Marree will be back in the lineup this Saturday alongside Alex Atkins, Ben Jagt, and “Playoff” Jack Williams. Defensively, John Randolph is the best D-line quarterback in the league, and Nick Whitlock, Drew Schnaudigel, and Charlie Panarella have all been revelations during the 2026 season.
In both their regular season losses, the Empire largely beat themselves. If they can just keep things simple on Saturday and avoid self-inflicted catastrophes, they should be able to handle their business against the Breeze.
The Pick: New York 20 DC 17
Saturday, July 25 — Salt Lake (5-7) at Seattle (8-4) — 8:00 PM/ET
How much belief can the 5-7 Shred actually have heading into the playoffs? They’ve dropped four straight—the team’s longest losing streak in franchise history—and suffered more losses during the 2026 regular season than the previous four seasons combined.
Meanwhile, the Cascades aren’t exactly clicking on all cylinders right now either, closing their regular season with an embarrassing home loss against the Oregon Steel, who doubled their season-long win total by sneaking past Seattle on Saturday. With a middling 3-3 home record, the ‘Scades are far from invincible on their home field.
In their pair of regular season matchups, Seattle prevailed by a single score both times, needing overtime in the second meeting at Salt Lake. It feels inevitable that another small margin will decide who moves on to Oakland.
“Expecting anything other than another close game would be silly,” said Seattle’s Garrett Martin. “Salt Lake has made the West final [four consecutive] years for a reason, and we’re going to have to earn our way to Oakland. I’d like to see us close out a game strong against them, as I feel like we kind of blew it a little the last two games with them. In Seattle, we were up four late and then they go on a run to bring it close. And in Salt Lake, we had a two-goal margin with like a minute to go and let them back in that one too. We’ve done a great job of taking control of both of our matchups, and now the job is just to finish it this time.”
Shred Coach Bryce Merrill will undoubtedly have some tricks up his sleeve, but to be honest, Salt Lake has looked like a pretty flawed team all season long.
Would I be stunned if the Shred went to Seattle and won? Absolutely not. The Cascades are far from a juggernaut. But they’ve also been the more consistent and competitive team throughout the season, and I think they’ll find a way to eke out another narrow victory over the Shred on Saturday.
The Pick: Seattle 23 Salt Lake 21
Sunday, July 26 — Indianapolis (6-6) at Madison (7-5) — 6:00 PM/ET
Like DC and New York, Indy and Madison are meeting for the 40th time this weekend, and Sunday’s opening round tilt will be the fifth collision of the season between the AlleyCats and Radicals.
The Radicals won the first three meetings by narrow margins, and then the AlleyCats pummeled Madison in the most recent matchup. That 31-18 rout—described by one Radical as a “fever dream”—was basically Indy at its best and Madison having a miserable night. If the AlleyCats had their same crew this Sunday, I’d expect a similarly comfortable victory.
But here’s the thing: two of Indianapolis’ elite playmakers, Sofiene Bontemps and William Wettengel, are currently listed as “Out” on the roster report. Cameron Brock, the league’s all-time goal-scoring king, and Jonathan Mast, who’s thrown the second-most completions in UFA history, are also expected to miss the game.
Collectively, this quartet combined for 11 goals, seven assists, eight blocks, and 92 completions in the AlleyCats’ July 3rd romp over the Radicals. Without these playmakers, this looks like a much closer fight.
Elliot Hawkins and Jake Felton have both had special seasons, and Seth Gudeman continues to be one of the most underrated all-around talents in the league. But the AlleyCats’ strength has never been their depth. And the Radicals have far more postseason experience up and down their roster.
“Overall, vibes are good,” said Madison’s Noa Chun-Moy. “This iteration of the Radicals feels different. The young guys are stepping up into star roles and playing well in them. We’re all hungry for the opportunity to play in front of our fans and especially ready to crush some Cat dreams.”
After watching Indy completely dismantle Madison just 18 days ago, I never fathomed that I would lean toward the Radicals in the playoff rematch. But after seeing who Indy’s missing, it’s hard to imagine that Sunday’s game won’t be close.
And in a close game, the Radicals have the edge.
The Pick: Madison 19 Indianapolis 17
Coming up later today in “Seven On The Line”, more highlights and stories from the 13-game Week 13 slate, a glimpse at the UFA’s season leaders, and wishing a couple UFA veterans a very fond farewell.
